A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
