A mere 60 days prior that Morgan Rogers stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while his coach berated him for not reading a through-ball. Back then, as Villa went six without a win, it wasn't clear whether his performances were a sign or the source of the team's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, however, the manager's outburst proved to be much more joyous. When the England international drilled in his second to restore his side's advantage, the boss discarded his winter coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. Villa marched on to ten wins in a row and despite not winning their opening six games, find themselves only three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Title Contenders?
It remains a particularly tough proposition to address. The historical record, the perceived status of Villa, suggests not. Additionally, they've rarely been wholly dominant in many games, despite the fact the wins have piled up.
Per Opta, on just two occasions has the team posted an expected goals figure notably superior than the opposition. For a side that have just won a ten-match winning streak, they look weirdly vulnerable – however currently the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy appears to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and then rely on their star man to save the day with a couple of precise efforts. This occurred away to Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and once more when facing the Red Devils.
His opener originated from an exquisite effort, curled precisely inside the upright from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal acted as a slight scruffier version of the opener as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. In the recent win, the opponents had more efforts and more direct attempts. Villa have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival Villa will encounter over the coming weeks. The forward, almost certainly, cannot keep on blasting the ball into the top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Could it be another reality in which, instead of luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players might still rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins could start adding to his goal tally.
- The winger could transform into the player he resembled in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs are due to regain fitness, bolstering a sometimes shaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
However, nobody expected this. Few believed Aston Villa would sit third at Christmas. And without a doubt earlier this season, few could imagine Rogers by the end of the year would be leading a title charge while establishing himself as a crucial England player.
This winning streak should be enjoyed precisely because it appears so improbable. As Rogers faced the Villa faithful at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he seemed to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are rare in football and should be relished.
